The Thousand-Year Rain

Year 1200 · the world the film opens on

The Drowned World

What a thousand years of rain leaves behind: a salty, empty ocean, a sky with nothing flying in it, people with no fire, eight rocks, and one fixed star.

76°E78°E80°E82°E84°E86°E88°E90°E28°N30°N32°N34°N36°N 1,300 km K2 +461 m Everest group 4 rocks Kangchenjunga +436 m Dhaulagiri +17 m Manaslu +13 m 200 km
Everything on this chart that is not a dot is water. The Himalaya and the Karakoram at +8,150 m, 75°E to 90.5°E.
A salinity refractometer reading 29 parts per thousand, with marks at 35 for today and 7 for a fresh-water flood 0 10 20 30 40 ‰ 35 · today 7 · a fresh-water flood 29 ‰ · Year 1000
The reading, as a salinity refractometer shows it: the edge between blue and white falls on the scale at 29 parts per thousand.

The sea · decided

The ocean stayed salty

35 ‰ to 29 ‰ over the thousand years. A real stress on marine life, nowhere near an extinction.

This was nearly decided the other way. A fresh-water delivery would take the ocean to about 7 ‰. Human kidneys can handle water that dilute, so a 7 ‰ ocean is nearly drinkable, and that destroys the film’s entire fresh-water economy: the urine-recycling opening, water as currency, all of it.

The film’s scarcity is terrestrial, not marine. People fish successfully throughout. What is scarce is dirt, paper, plants, tobacco, metal and fresh water. A dead ocean is not what the film shows.

It costs nothing to arrange. The feedstock was always salty: the oceans of Europa and Enceladus are saline, and chondritic material carries soluble chlorides and sulfates. A purification plant produces two streams, product water and reject brine. The depot’s discharge specification requires output matched to the receiving body’s composition, so the overflow vents both.

Environmental compliance, followed perfectly, for a thousand years.

The sea · still poor

An empty ocean

Impoverished for better reasons than salt.

  1. The shelves are gone. Every continental shelf and coastal upwelling zone is under kilometers of water. Essentially all historical fisheries lived there.
  2. Nothing feeds it. No river nutrients. No desert dust. The steady state is oligotrophic: the Sargasso Sea, globally.
  3. The deep is dead. Warm, stratified, sluggish circulation leaves the deep permanently anoxic and euxinic.
  4. Fish have a floor. No fish can live below about 8,200 m. The limit is set by TMAO, the compound fish use to protect their proteins from pressure, and it is hard. Most of the new ocean’s volume is permanently uninhabitable to vertebrates.
0 km the surface, Year 1200 8.2 km no fish below this line ~11 km average depth ~19 km the deepest water
A sounding of the new ocean, to scale. Everything below the line is out of reach of any vertebrate.

The monster

It did not evolve. It came up.

The film’s creature is too complex to have evolved in a thousand years. It was always there, deeper than anyone went.

Size is not the problem. The nutrient pulse of the drowning fed an explosion of life that was over within a century, but a large predator can still find enough to eat. The problem is complexity. Anything that radically different needs far longer than a thousand years to evolve, and a timeline that long would have turned the humans into something else too. In the film, most humans are still human.

So it did not evolve. It relocated. The ocean gained 8 km of depth. Pressure made the old seafloor uninhabitable: it now lies deeper than any fish can live. The warm, stratified water above it lost its oxygen. The habitable ocean collapsed into a thin layer at the top.

The monster was always down there. Nobody had seen it because nobody went that deep, and new species still turn up in the deep sea often enough that this is not a stretch. It is at the surface now because the surface is the only place left with oxygen in it.

It is probably not the only thing that came up. Anything from the deep that can stand the lower pressure could follow it. There could be krakens.

The author’s answer, in full
The same spot on the old seafloor, today and in Year 1200, to scale Today the water there is 3.7 km deep, with oxygen all the way down, and a large animal lives unseen in the deep. In Year 1200 the same spot is under 11.85 km of water. Below 8.2 km no fish can live. The water between the surface layer and that depth has no oxygen. Only a thin layer at the top has oxygen in it, and the animal is there now. 024681012 KM TODAY OXYGEN ALL THE WAY DOWN seafloor, 3.7 km YEAR 1200 NO OXYGEN NO FISH CAN LIVE 8.2 km 11.85 km oxygen the old seafloor came up
The same spot on the old abyssal plain, before and after, depths to scale. The thickness of the layer that still has oxygen is drawn for legibility, not measured.

What lives

Survivors and the extinct

The survivors are at home in both salt and fresh water, or live entirely at sea and bear live young. Everything that needs land to breed is gone.

  • No. 01 Diadromous fish salmon, eels, sticklebacks, gobies, killifish Already move between fresh and salt water. Persists
  • No. 02 Cetaceans Cetacea Fully aquatic. Live birth. Persists
  • No. 03 Sirenians Sirenia Fully aquatic. Live birth. Persists
  • No. 04 True sea snakes Hydrophiinae Bear live young at sea. Persists
  • No. 05 Sargassum Sargassum Free-floating. Reproduces vegetatively. Persists
  • No. 06 Sea skaters Halobates The only truly oceanic insects. Wingless. Persists
  • No. 07 Seals and sea lions Pinnipedia Breed on land. Extinct
  • No. 08 Sea turtles Chelonioidea Nest on beaches. Extinct
  • No. 09 Every bird Aves Nest on land. Extinct

Nothing flies anywhere on Earth.

No birds. No bats. No winged insects.

The body · food

No fire

Vitamin C is destroyed by heat. Naval scurvy came from salted, cooked, preserved food, not from the absence of plants.

They have no fire. No wood, no fuel, no safe hearth on a raft. So they cannot cook, so they eat everything raw, which is exactly the diet that prevents scurvy. It is the documented Inuit case.

A low-carbohydrate diet also lowers the requirement, because glucose and vitamin C compete for the same transporter into the cell.

Vitamin C

raw food · per 100 g

Muktuk, whale skin
~36 mg
Dried seaweed
20–40 mg
Adrenal gland
among the highest of any tissue
Brain, liver, kidney, roe
meaningful amounts
Raw fish flesh
a few mg

To prevent scurvy~10 mg a day

One to two kilograms of raw fish a day clears it on flesh alone. Muktuk is comparable to orange juice. Sprouted seed on the atolls helps.

The absence of fire is a catastrophe and the thing that keeps them alive. A people who could cook would have cooked, and died of it.

Scurvy killed the first generations, the ones who still ate like their grandparents. The survivors learned to eat organs raw. It felt like becoming an animal, and its taboos outlive the reason for them.

The organs go to the children. That is the law. It is five hundred years old. Nobody remembers why.

The body · light

What the thin sky did

Cataracts, not cancer

Skin cancer is slow and mostly arrives after people have had their children. UV cataracts blind people in their forties, in a world that requires sight to eat. Chronic immune suppression from UV is the second-largest effect.

Folate, not radiation

UV does not reach a fetus. But folate breaks down in light, UV degrades it, and folate deficiency causes neural tube defects. A diet with no leafy greens or legumes makes it worse. UV is not written here as causing mutations.

A flood-era condition

The ozone recovers within a century of the last delivery. The film takes place after that.

Two things that stay normal

Air and sun

A barometer dial reading about 1,013 hectopascals 960 980 1000 1020 1040 1060 hPa ~1,013
Still about one atmosphere. Total air mass and surface area are unchanged, so the weight of the air column on each square meter is the same. People breathe normally at what used to be Everest’s altitude.
Open ocean0.06
Land~0.3
Ice~0.6
Warm and sunny. Share of sunlight reflected back to space. An Earth with no land and no land ice reflects far less, so the end state is warm and sunny however gently the water arrived.

What dooms them

The materials trap

Every human technology is downstream of terrestrial materials. Salvage is a finite, corroding inheritance: structural steel in seawater has a few centuries in it at most.

Inventory · Year 1200

Ore
None
Wood
None
Fiber
None
Clay
None
Fuel
None
Salvage
Finite. Corroding.

Dry Land

Not one island. Eight.

At +8,150 m these summits are still out of the water, drawn to scale by how far each one stands above it.

  1. Everest +699 m
  2. K2 +461 m
  3. Kangchenjunga +436 m
  4. Lhotse +366 m
  5. Makalu +335 m
  6. Cho Oyu +38 m · awash
  7. Dhaulagiri +17 m · awash
  8. Manaslu +13 m · awash
Height above the water at +8,150 m, one scale for all eight. Everest, the green-topped one, is the only summit ever farmed.

Everest, Lhotse and Makalu sit within 20 km of each other, a local group. Kangchenjunga is 130 km east. K2 is 1,300 km northwest and carried its own holdout, which went silent in Era VI and became a rumor even to the people who have a rumor.

Only Everest was ever farmed. The seed bank was there. The rest are bare rock. The greenery and animals in the film are the Everest colony’s stock, gone feral. The film’s Dry Land is assumed to be Everest.

The water stops at +8,150 m on purpose. More than one rock is what makes Dry Land a story with no fixed referent in the film.

Everest +699 m Lhotse +366 m Makalu +335 m Cho Oyu +38 m 10 km
The Everest group, close up: four rocks within 30 km. Dots mark summits; the text says how far each stands out of the water, not how big it is.

The Mariner

Where the Mariner comes from

Gills cannot evolve in a thousand years. So somebody made them, and there was one place left that could.

  1. Given

    Evolution cannot do it.

    A thousand years is about forty generations. The closest real case, the whales, took roughly ten million years to go from land to sea.

  2. So

    He was made.

    That takes a working laboratory, and by the last centuries of the rain there is one left on Earth: the holdout on the Everest massif, with the last working technology anywhere.

  3. Why

    They could do the arithmetic.

    They knew the water would stop. Their error bars were wider than the mountain is tall. So in their last two generations they built a successor that would not need the mountain: gill-bearing, salt-tolerant, pressure-adapted. Not a weapon. A successor.

  4. Then

    They sent it out.

    One small cohort, released or abandoned around Year 960. The release was a rite of passage: sent out, expected back.

  5. But

    The rain stopped short.

    In Year 1000, 700 m below the summit. The mountain did not need a successor after all, and the cohort stayed on the water.

  6. And

    The trait breeds true.

    Either it was engineered dominant, or the cohort bred among itself as a small, hated clan. Either way there are few of them.

  7. So

    He is a descendant, not a survivor.

    The film’s Mariner is roughly eight generations down from the cohort. No extended lifespan. It would buy nothing once he is a descendant, and a 240-year-old who acts thirty is a bigger stretch than gills.

  8. Therefore

    He does not know what he is.

    The cohort was sent out and expected back. He comes back to the mountain in the film without knowing it.

It is still a stretch, and the ledger says so. Giving the holdout a motive rather than a contrivance is what makes it as strong as it can be.

Successor · Era VI

Design brief

The holdout, Everest massif · its last two generations

Purpose
Outlive the last mountain
Not
A weapon
Breathes
Through gills
Salt water
Tolerant
Pressure
Adapted
Lifespan
Unchanged
Inheritance
Breeds true
Cohort
One, small
Release
About Year 960
Return
Expected
The successor as the holdout might have written it down. The requirements are the setting’s. The form is this site’s.
An atoll from above: a round Ancient core in the middle, ringed by centuries of welded patches with gaps of open water THE CORE ERA III PATCHING FIVE CENTURIES
An atoll from above. The core does the work: buoyancy, desalination, a growing deck. Nobody alive can open it or build another.

The atolls

Older atolls are better atolls

Purpose-built floating habitat from the building era, decayed. At the heart of each is an Ancient core, with its buoyancy hull, desalination plant and growing deck, that nobody can open or rebuild. The visible welded junk is five centuries of patching around it. Capability declined across the building era, so the oldest atolls are the best ones. This is the political geography of the film’s world.

From Era V until about Year 1070 the mountain traded with the atolls. Dirt, seed, wood and fiber went down; metal and fish came up. Dirt as the mountain’s export is the origin of the film’s dirt economy.

The atolls knew land existed. They never knew where. The position was the family’s secret, and nobody else could navigate to a fixed point anyway. Contact ended when the materials trap killed the last seaworthy hull, not by decision. Five generations later, land is something a grandmother said her grandfather came from. That is the film’s Gregor and Helen.

The relics

Sealed, anoxic, cold

Paper, cloth and tobacco do not survive a century of open seawater, let alone a thousand years. They come out of sealed, anoxic compartments in drowned structures. That is how deep-wreck organics actually survive, and it is why they are treasure and why a diving trade exists at all.

A drowned structure on the sea floor with one compartment still sealed; inside, paper, cloth and a tin keep in cold water with no oxygen. A diver’s line comes down from above. diver’s line sealed · anoxic · cold
Where the treasure comes from: the one compartment in a thousand that stayed shut.
A chart of the sky over the summit, zenith at the center. A line of stalled cargo arcs across the southern sky, and the depot sits on it as a fixed point. THE DEPOT · FIXED THE LINE ZENITH N S E W
The sky from the summit, as a sky chart draws it: zenith in the middle, east on the left. Stars move across it every night. The depot does not.

Navigation

One fixed star

Backed-up cargo is visible overhead as a line or a ring for the whole flood and after. The depot itself is still up there during the film.

Nobody on the water can find a fixed point. There are no charts, no instruments, no training, and atolls drift. A fixed island in an open ocean is unfindable by anyone who cannot navigate, and by Year 1200 nobody can, except one family.

The depot sits in a fixed orbit. It is a fixed mark in the sky, and the family navigates by the thing that drowned the world.

What people call it tracks how much they have lost

  1. Infrastructure
  2. A landmark
  3. A portent
  4. A god
  5. Nothing. Just something the Ancients left up there.

Next · the novella

The Line

One family, forty-eight generations, and one sheet of paper that ends as a map.